Stage 2 of the Tour de Langkawi rolls 145.6 km from Taiping to the summit finish at Gunung Jerai, a classic Malaysian mountain test that rewards pure climbers and eliminates sprinters and rouleurs. The finish atop Gunung Jerai is a steep, sustained climb that has historically produced clear-cut winner profiles — explosive climbing ability over a mountain finish terrain is the defining currency of the day. With no stage results yet to lean on, the form book from similar-profile races in the past 90 days and raw climbing credentials must guide selection.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Jan Castellon stands alone at the top of this prediction on the strength of a top-3 and two top-5 finishes in similar mountain-finish races recently, the best such record in the startlist. His climbing is among the very best in the field and Caja Rural's team depth adds tactical flexibility. If he arrives in good legs, this finish profile suits him perfectly.
Caja Rural
Caja Rural
Jan Castellon is the standout favorite here: among all climbers in this field he combines top-tier climbing ability with the most encouraging recent similar-profile form, including a top-3 and two top-5 finishes. Riding for Caja Rural alongside Balderstone gives him strong team support on the slopes of Gunung Jerai.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Nicolas Breuillard and Luca Covili are separated from the dark horses by the quality and volume of their similar-profile results. Breuillard's top-3 alongside strong hills credentials makes him a legitimate podium threat, while Covili's consistency — top-5 and multiple top-10s — shows he converts climbing ability into actual results on terrain like this.
Bardiani CSF
Bardiani CSF
Luca Covili has converted his recent similar-profile appearances into a top-5 and two top-10 results, demonstrating real consistency on terrain like this. His climbing is among the best in the Bardiani CSF lineup and his upcoming race schedule confirms he is fully focused on Langkawi.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Nicolas Breuillard arrives with the second-most productive recent similar-profile record in the field, posting a top-3 and two top-5 results. His hills attribute is also among the highest in the startlist, making him an excellent match for a punchy mountain finish like Gunung Jerai.
★★
Dark Horses
Jannis Peter, Abel Balderstone and Juan Guillermo Martinez form a tier of riders with elite climbing numbers whose similar-profile results have not yet fully delivered but whose physical profiles are ideal. Peter's two recent top-10s show promise, Balderstone's climbing leads the field alongside Martinez, and Picnic PostNL's double-headed team structure gives Martinez tactical options.
Caja Rural
Caja Rural
Abel Balderstone sits joint-top of the climbing rankings in this startlist and brings the depth of recent similar-profile racing experience behind him. While he has not yet converted that form into top finishes, his raw climbing credentials and team backing at Caja Rural make him a credible dark horse.
Unibet Rose
Unibet Rose
Jannis Peter quietly collected two top-10s in similar-profile races recently despite limited opportunities, suggesting he punches above his seeding on mountain finishes. His climbing is strong relative to the broader field and Unibet Rose should be able to protect him heading into the final climb.
Picnic PostNL
Picnic PostNL
Juan Guillermo Martinez is the other co-leader of this field by climbing ability, and Picnic PostNL can field Mattia Gaffuri alongside him for support. He has raced frequently in similar-profile events recently, giving him valuable current-form context on comparable terrain.
★
Ones to Watch
Geoffrey Bouchard, Jorge Gutiérrez, Mario Aparicio and Stefan de Bod round out the top-10 as riders with one or more indicators pointing to a live chance. Bouchard and Gutiérrez each have a recent similar-profile top-10 to their name, Aparicio's hills attribute is the strongest in the field for punchy finishes, and de Bod's Epic rarity and exceptional hills numbers give him outsider appeal.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Geoffrey Bouchard managed a top-10 in a similar-profile race recently and is an experienced hand at mountain finishes, having competed at the highest level in the mountains before joining TotalEnergies. His climbing is solid if not elite by this field's standards.
Kern Pharma
Kern Pharma
Jorge Gutiérrez showed up in the similar-profile top-10 recently and is confirmed as a Kern Pharma protected rider for Langkawi. His climbing is competitive and the team has multiple climbers available to support his bid.
Burgos
Burgos
Mario Aparicio has a particularly strong hills attribute — arguably the best in the field for punchy mountain finishes — and brings Burgos team depth behind him. While his similar-profile results have not yet broken into the top-10 bracket recently, his profile suits Gunung Jerai well.
Modern Adventure
Modern Adventure
Stefan de Bod is the sole Epic-rarity climber in this selection and his hills attribute is exceptional, giving him a natural edge on shorter, steep final climbs. He picked up a top-10 in similar-profile racing recently and the Modern Adventure team will likely give him freedom to animate the race.
Verdict
Jan Castellon is the clear favourite, combining the field's strongest recent similar-profile results with top-tier climbing ability and solid Caja Rural team support; Nicolas Breuillard and Luca Covili are the most likely to challenge him at the summit of Gunung Jerai.