Stage 2 of the 2026 Tour de France covers 169.2 km from Tarragona to Barcelona, finishing atop a hilly summit that will thin out the sprinters and test the all-rounders and climbers. The Barcelona finish is a punchy, prestigious conclusion that sets up the GC story early and invites attacking racing. With multiple Legendary-rated riders in the hills category toeing the line, this stage promises to be a showcase of the Tour's elite from the opening weekend.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Pogacar is simply in a class of his own: top Hills rating (83), 11 wins in 90 days, and an avg position of 4.0 in hilly races with at least one victory. Barring a tactical surprise or mechanical, he is expected to be the last man standing on the Barcelona climb.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Pogacar is the undisputed favorite with a Hills rating of 83, the best in the field, and a staggering 11 wins from 16 races in the last 90 days. His avg position of 4.0 in similar-profile hilly races — with at least one win — makes him the overwhelming pick for a Barcelona finish.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Evenepoel and Pidcock are the two riders most likely to resist Pogacar on a punchy hill finish. Evenepoel's TT strength (84) and Hill win pedigree, combined with Pidcock's aggressive climbing and 80 Hills rating, make both credible stage winners if the yellow jersey makes an error or attacks too late.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Evenepoel boasts a Hills rating of 81 and has averaged 5.2 in similar hill-finish races, including a victory, making him one of the few riders capable of matching Pogacar on a punchy finish. His recent form (17.9 avg pos, 1 win, 4 podiums in 8 races) shows he's building toward the Tour.
Pinarello-Q36.5
Pinarello-Q36.5
Tom Pidcock carries an 80 Hills rating and has shown a best of 2nd in similar hilly races, demonstrating his ability to contest hard finishes. His aggressive racing style and strong all-round profile make him a genuine podium threat on this Barcelona finale.
★★
Dark Horses
Vingegaard, Skjelmose, and del Toro all hold 79–80 Hills ratings and have shown strong recent form. Vingegaard may be conserving energy for the GC, while Skjelmose and del Toro are freer to race offensively — either could slip into a podium position if the favorites are distracted by tactical games.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Isaac del Toro holds a Hills rating of 79 and has been in excellent form with 3 wins from 10 races and an avg pos of 22.5. As a UAE teammate to Pogacar, his role may be domestique, but his talent could see him feature if given freedom on this stage.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Vingegaard's Hills rating of 80 and exceptional Climbing stat of 83 underline his quality, and he has 8 wins from 27 races in recent form. However, his avg finishing position of 28.7 across all race types suggests he may be managing load ahead of the GC battle.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Skjelmose has an 80 Hills rating and solid recent results with 2 podiums and 9 top-10s in 23 races, showing consistency across hilly terrain. He has the profile to animate the stage and could sneak onto the podium if the big guns neutralize each other.
★
Ones to Watch
Vauquelin, Carapaz, Lipowitz, and Pedersen represent the best of the outsider tier. Vauquelin and Carapaz are natural climbers who excel in breakaways and unpredictable finishes, Lipowitz brings exceptional recent form (3 wins, 10 podiums), and Pedersen is the bonus pick if the climb is gradual enough to reward a powerful all-rounder with a sprint finish.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Lipowitz has been one of the busiest riders in form with 3 wins, 10 podiums, and 14 top-10s from 25 races, and his Hills rating of 77 keeps him in contention. His best of 1st in a similar hilly race shows he knows how to close out hard finishes.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Vauquelin has a Hills rating of 79 and a best of 2nd in hilly races, showing he can contest difficult finishes. Recent form is modest (22.7 avg pos, 1 podium in 18 races), but the Barcelona finish suits his punchy climbing style.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mads Pedersen's Hills rating of 76 and a best of 2nd in similar hill-finish races show he can compete when the finale isn't too steep. His Sprint stat of 77 gives him an edge if a reduced group contests the Barcelona finish, making him a smart outside pick.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Carapaz brings a strong Climbing stat of 80 and a Hills rating of 78, with 3 podiums in 12 recent races and a best of 2nd in similar-profile events. He's an experienced attacker who could exploit any gaps on the final climb into Barcelona.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the clear favorite — his Hills rating, recent dominance, and hilly-race track record are unmatched in this field. Evenepoel and Pidcock are the most dangerous threats, with Vingegaard and Skjelmose lurking as wildcards if the race fragments before the finish.
